Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Global aid at a crossroads
Globalization | Growth
June 11, 2025 – Global aid faces a pivotal moment. After years of official development assistance increasing, major foreign donors have announced significant reductions. As a result, a 15 to 22 percent reduction in funds is expected, for an estimated loss of $41 billion to $60 billion, according to Senior Partner Tania Holt and coauthors. Stakeholders can consider several levers to combat these challenges, including mobilizing additional resources and reprioritizing investments and programs.
To read the article, see “A generational shift: The future of foreign aid,” May 6, 2025.
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Visual form
Historical stacked bar chart with a projected future-state bar.
Layout / body structure
The chart is a long time-series stack read left to right from the early 2000s to 2023, followed by a separated future-state bar on the far right. Annotations above the stacks call out the biggest past decline and the projected future reduction.
What is being compared
It compares total global official development assistance over time and breaks that total into U.S. government bilateral, non-U.S. NATO bilateral, other bilateral, EU institutions, and multilateral funding sources.
Measurement system
The bars are measured in billions of dollars, and the annotation on the right translates the expected funding change into a 15 to 22 percent reduction. The stacked colors separate each funding source and allow the reader to track how the composition changes over time.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The historical series climbs from around 80 billion dollars in the early 2000s to a peak of 275 in 2023. The 2023 bar is broken into visible segments labeled 57, 80, 49, 37, and 52. To the far right, the future-state bar is shorter, labeled around 215 to 234, and sits under a bracketed note describing the projected early reduction. An earlier annotation also marks a 32 percent decline from 176 to 120 in the mid-2000s.
Main takeaway from the visual
The chart shows that official development assistance expanded substantially through 2023 but now faces a large projected reversal that could erase a meaningful share of the recent gains.
Key standout values or extremes
The historical peak reaches 275 billion dollars in 2023. The future-state projection falls to roughly 215 to 234, implying a 15 to 22 percent reduction and a funding loss of tens of billions of dollars. The prior largest decline marked on the chart is 32 percent, from 176 to 120.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.