Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Tariff trajectories
Economy | Geopolitics
May 15, 2025 – Amid tariff uncertainty, business leaders can’t control the macroeconomic climate but can prepare by evaluating the range of plausible outcomes, note Senior Partner Olivia White and coauthors. They’ve developed five scenarios and charted the economic effects of each. Two scenarios—productivity acceleration and US fiscal reset—would lead to a thriving economy, with higher trust and better balance, but along differing paths. Two others—no real disruption and central banks tighten—would deliver flat results and fail to rebuild trust. The fifth—geopolitical tensions escalate—is likely to stunt growth, diminish trust, and worsen imbalances. Click through the interactive to see more.
Interactive
To read the article, see “In a moment of tariffs, can the world find balance and trust to thrive?,” May 2, 2025.
customizer here
Visual form
Line Chart and Bar Chart: regional macro-scenario dashboard for tariff and trust outcomes.
Layout / body structure
Each regional frame keeps the same layout: line-chart panels for inflation, central bank rates, ten-year government bond yields, and real GDP growth, plus a horizontal bar chart ranking absolute real GDP growth potential.
What is being compared
It compares five macro scenarios across selected countries and regions: productivity acceleration, US fiscal reset, no real disruption, central banks tighten, and global tensions escalate.
Measurement system
The line charts use percent values for inflation, rates, bond yields, and real GDP growth. The bar chart uses percent change in absolute real GDP growth potential, with scenario colors kept consistent across the dashboard.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Scenario lines repeat across the metric panels, making path differences visible within each region. The lower-right bar chart turns those paths into a ranked growth-potential comparison for the selected geography.
Main takeaway from the visual
The dashboard shows that tariff and trust scenarios create very different macro paths. Productivity acceleration and US fiscal reset generally sit higher on growth potential, while global tensions escalate is the weakest case.
Key standout values or extremes
In the UAE view, growth-potential bars range from 48.8 under productivity acceleration to 29.9 under global tensions escalate. In the South Korea view, the spread is wider, from 40.2 at the top to 5.0 at the bottom.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
Previous and Next move through regional frames, and the region selector changes the geography while preserving the same line-and-bar dashboard structure.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the macro-scenario dashboard is the visual on this page.