Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Economic uncertainty hits new high
Economy | Geopolitics | Global Trade
May 8, 2025 – The COVID-19 pandemic shattered previous records for economic uncertainty levels. Now, however, economic policy uncertainty in the United States has eclipsed the prior March 2020 high. These uncertainties—related to geopolitics and trade policy—are in turn weighing on growth expectations in developed economies, note Senior Partner Sven Smit and coauthors.
Interactive
To read the article, see “Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, March 2025,” April 25, 2025.
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Visual form
Time-series line chart. The chart tracks the US economic policy uncertainty index across a long historical span and emphasizes the latest spike relative to earlier shocks.
Layout / body structure
The visual is laid out as a single horizontal chart with time running from 2000 to 2025. Reader follows one main line across the full timeline and uses the labeled peaks and hoverable points to compare the newest surge with earlier episodes such as the pandemic spike.
What is being compared
The chart compares economic policy uncertainty in the United States across time rather than across categories. It is fundamentally a before-and-after comparison between the latest 2025 reading and prior spikes generated by earlier trade, geopolitical, and pandemic shocks.
Measurement system
The chart uses an uncertainty index rather than dollars or percentages. The x-axis is time from January 2000 to January 2025, and the y-axis represents the level of the economic policy uncertainty index, with higher line positions indicating more uncertainty.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The graphic is organized around a single line that rises and falls across the full historical period, with the largest spikes standing out above the lower baseline sections of the series. The line shape is what carries the argument: long stretches of lower readings are interrupted by sharp surges, culminating in a new high at the far right end of the chart.
Main takeaway from the visual
The visible takeaway is that uncertainty has surged beyond the levels reached during COVID-19. The latest point sits above the prior record spike, making the current episode the chart’s most extreme reading rather than just another fluctuation inside the historical range.
Key standout values or extremes
The chart’s defining extreme is the far-right 2025 peak, which the source description identifies as exceeding the previous COVID-era high from March 2020. The key visual comparison is therefore not a small incremental rise but a clear break above the earlier record.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
Because the chart comes from a chart, the reader can move along the timeline to inspect values and compare specific dates or spikes. The interaction is tied to the time axis: hovering turns the long historical line into a set of identifiable monthly points.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.