Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Heating’s hot challenge
Decarbonization | Industrials & Electronics
May 31, 2024 – Industrial heat pumps have the potential to supply more than 10 percent of global industrial and district heating demand for temperatures below 200°C by 2030. In the EU-27 and the United Kingdom, that figure climbs to 20 percent of industry heating processes, senior partner Harald Bauer and coauthors note, representing an increase of more than ten percentage points from 2023. This growth is expected to be fueled by significant investments, particularly for larger installations with higher temperature ranges. Click through the interactive to see more.
Interactive
To read the article, see “Industrial heat pumps: Five considerations for future growth,” March 19, 2024.
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Visual form
Two-panel stacked-area forecast of Europe heating technology mix.
Layout / body structure
The chart is built as a two-panel sequence for Europe from 2023 to 2030. One panel covers district heating and the other covers industrial process heating, with the technology mix shown as stacked share bands over time.
What is being compared
It compares the projected share of heat pumps against other heating technologies in district heating and industrial process heating. The emphasis is on whether heat pumps gain enough share to become a meaningful part of the lower-temperature heat mix.
Measurement system
The measure is percent share of the heating technology mix. The time scale runs from 2023 to 2030, and the article frames the opportunity around industrial and district heating demand below 200 degrees Celsius.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Each panel uses stacked areas to show how the mix changes year by year. The heat-pump band widens across the forecast period, moving from about 5 percent of the total in 2023 to a projected 15 percent by 2030 in both district and industrial settings.
Main takeaway from the visual
The chart shows heat pumps moving from a small share of Europe industrial and district heating to a visible part of the 2030 technology mix. The growth is meaningful, but it is still a share shift inside a broader heating system rather than a full replacement story.
Key standout values or extremes
The key visible jump is the heat-pump share increasing by roughly ten percentage points, from about 5 percent in 2023 to about 15 percent in 2030. The article also notes a 20 percent potential share for industry heating processes in the EU-27 and United Kingdom.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
The reader switches between the district-heating panel and the industrial-process-heating panel to compare the same 2023-to-2030 share shift in the two settings.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.