Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Optimism with a note of caution
Economy | Strategy
January 10, 2024 – Respondents to the McKinsey Global Survey on economic conditions were cautiously optimistic about their companies’ performance in the first half of 2024. But, in some areas, that optimism was more muted than last year. McKinsey Global Institute chair and senior partner Sven Smit and colleagues report that 60 percent of respondents expect profits to increase in the next six months, a drop from September, when 66 percent expressed such optimism. Expectations about jobs were also less positive: unlike in previous quarters, most expect their companies’ workforce to remain the same rather than to grow.
To read the survey, see “Survey results: Expectations for company performance, by industry,” December 20, 2023.
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Visual form
Paired multi-series line charts. The chart uses two side-by-side time-series plots to show how sentiment shifts across industries rather than relying on a single aggregated trend line.
Layout / body structure
Layout / body structure: the page presents one chart on the left for profit expectations and a second chart on the right for workforce expectations. The reading order is left to right, with a shared legend linking the sector colors across both panels and a note block underneath.
What is being compared
What is being compared: each panel compares six industries across the same survey checkpoints in 2023. The left panel tracks the share expecting profits to increase, while the right panel tracks the share expecting workforce size to increase, so the reader can compare earnings optimism against hiring optimism.
Measurement system
Measurement system: the reader tracks percentages over four survey waves, moving from March to June to September to December 2023. Color identifies sector membership, and the plotted lines show how each sector rises, falls, or levels out across the year.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Visible structure inside the graphic: both panels contain multiple colored lines, repeated date positions on the horizontal axis, and a shared legend that keeps the sector mapping consistent. The paired format lets the same sectors be visually compared across two different business measures without changing the chart grammar.
Main takeaway from the visual
Main takeaway from the visual: profit expectations remain positive but soften late in the year, while hiring expectations are flatter and generally more cautious. The two-panel structure makes the gap visible by showing that companies are still relatively more willing to project stronger profits than stronger workforce growth.
Key standout values or extremes
Key standout values or extremes: the source range highlights that the share expecting profits to increase dipped to 60 percent in December 2023 from 66 percent in September. The workforce panel is visibly lower and more dispersed than the profits panel, reinforcing that hiring sentiment is the weaker of the two measures.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.