Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
A transition toward normalcy is possible
COVID-19 | Public Health
September 16, 2021 – Our scenario analysis suggests that the US, Canada, and many European countries would likely have reached herd immunity by now if they had faced only the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus and if a high percentage of those eligible to receive the vaccine had chosen to take it. As the more infectious Delta variant becomes more prevalent in a population, countries may have to increase COVID-19 vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity. Click through the interactive below to see what it will take for countries to get there.
Interactive
To read the article, see “When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?,” August 23, 2021.
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Visual form
Slide-based horizontal bar comparison chart.
Layout / body structure
The chart is organized as a slide sequence with one country list per frame. Each frame reads left to right across horizontal country bars for vaccine coverage and herd-immunity thresholds, then across a right-side panel of arrows showing factors that raise or lower the required coverage.
What is being compared
The chart compares current vaccine coverage with the potential coverage level needed for herd immunity across a set of countries. It also compares the directional pressure of variants of concern, vaccine efficacy, and natural immunity on the level of coverage required.
Measurement system
The horizontal bars are measured as percent of population on a 0 to 100 scale. Black bars show full vaccination, black line extensions show at least one dose, and bright blue overlays show the modeled coverage required for herd immunity.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Each country appears as a horizontal bar row, and the right side adds three small arrow boxes per country for variant effect, vaccine efficacy, and natural immunity. In the observed frames, countries such as the UK, Canada, Germany, and Italy sit much farther along the vaccination scale than India or South Africa, while the blue herd-immunity overlays reveal where the remaining gap is small or large.
Main takeaway from the visual
The slide sequence shows that returning to something like normalcy depends not only on current vaccination levels but on how close those levels are to the higher thresholds implied by Delta and other epidemiological factors. Some countries look near the target, while others still show a wide distance between coverage and the modeled herd-immunity requirement.
Key standout values or extremes
In the observed frames, the UK, Canada, Germany, and Italy cluster with full vaccination in roughly the high 50s to low 60s and only a small remaining blue gap to the target. The United States shows a noticeably larger gap, while India and South Africa display the widest shortfalls, with low starting coverage and much more blue area needed to reach the modeled threshold.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This page is sourced from a slide-based that changes the country roster and the gap-to-threshold picture while preserving the same bar-and-arrow layout.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.