Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Vaccine development and the two-hour marathon
COVID-19 | Public Health
May 28, 2021 – The mean development timeline for all new drugs (including vaccines) since 2000—from clinical testing to approval—was about ten years. Yet three COVID-19 vaccines were granted emergency-use authorization (EUA) or other forms of approval in Europe, the United Kingdom, or the United States just 11 months after the SARS-CoV-2 sequence was published. At every step, science moved faster than anyone thought possible—just like modern marathoners.
To read the article, see “Fast-forward: Will the speed of COVID-19 vaccine development reset industry norms?”, May 13, 2021.
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Visual form
Two-stage vaccine-timeline compression chart using duration clusters.
Layout / body structure
The chart is split into a sample baseline scenario on top and a sample accelerated timeline below. Read left to right across the development stages in the top row first, then compare the matching stages in the compressed lower row, and finally use the large total-duration callouts on the far right to compare the whole-development timelines.
What is being compared
The chart compares standard vaccine-development timing with the accelerated COVID-19-style development process. It compares the duration of preclinical work, phase 1, phase 2, phase 3, filing, and registration under the traditional sequence versus the accelerated sequence based on prior SARS and MERS research.
Measurement system
The measure is development time in months. Approximate durations are printed above each stage cluster – such as around 12 to 24 months, around 24 months, or around 36 to 48 months in the baseline case – while the lower row prints much shorter durations such as around 2, around 4, or around 1 month for the accelerated scenario.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Each stage is represented by a cluster of colored circles whose size and count visually reinforce duration, with phase 3 becoming the largest purple cluster in the baseline row. The accelerated row compresses those stage markers into much smaller groups, and the right-edge callouts summarize the whole sequence as roughly 10 years in the baseline versus less than 1 year in the accelerated path.
Main takeaway from the visual
COVID-19 vaccine development compressed a process that normally takes about a decade into less than a year by overlapping steps and dramatically shrinking stage durations. The visual makes that compression visceral because the large top-row clusters collapse into tiny bottom-row markers across every stage, not just one.
Key standout values or extremes
In the baseline scenario, preclinical work and phase 1 each take roughly 12 to 24 months, phase 2 about 24 months, phase 3 about 36 to 48 months, filing about 12 months, and registration about 12 months, for a total of around 10 years. In the accelerated timeline, the corresponding stages compress to roughly 2, 2, 2, 4, and 1 month, followed by authorization, bringing the total below 1 year.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.