Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
The US food-service industry may take four years to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic
COVID-19 | Consumer | Food | North America
July 17, 2020 – Of the two crisis-recovery scenarios that global executives view as most likely, a 2021 economic return is most optimistic. But the return could be delayed up to four years if the virus recurs.
To read the article, see “US food supply chain: Disruptions and implications from COVID-19,” July 2, 2020.
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Visual form
Two-scenario line chart with small recovery-summary bars underneath.
Layout / body structure
The main chart plots monthly restaurant sales change from 2019 under virus-contained and virus-recurrence scenarios. The lower summaries show time to return, peak-sales drop, total 2020 sales, and Q3-Q4 sales by scenario.
What is being compared
It compares US food-service recovery paths depending on whether the coronavirus remains contained or recurs and turns the economy down again.
Measurement system
The main vertical axis is percent change from 2019 monthly restaurant sales. The lower summaries use years to return and percent change year over year.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Both scenarios collapse in 2020. The virus-contained line rebounds toward precrisis growth, while the recurrence line recovers slowly and remains materially below 2019 levels.
Main takeaway from the visual
Food-service recovery could take years, and the gap between containment and recurrence scenarios is large for both timing and sales levels.
Key standout values or extremes
The lower bars show peak-sales declines around 35 to 45 percent. A contained scenario recovers by around 2022, while a recurrence scenario can extend recovery toward 2024.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.