Source page: McKinsey & Company

Commentary

Visual form

Bar Chart and Choropleth Map: African crop-yield risk comparison for Mozambique and Ethiopia.

Layout / body structure

The chart compares Mozambique and Ethiopia side by side. Each country has a map highlight, crop-specific bar comparisons, and climate-driver notes explaining why yield risk changes.

What is being compared

It compares the likelihood of extreme yield changes for selected African crops: cotton and corn in Mozambique, and wheat and coffee in Ethiopia. The bars compare today’s likelihood with the projected 2030 likelihood.

Measurement system

The bars measure likelihood of extreme yield changes as a percent. The thresholds distinguish at least 10 percent and at least 25 percent yield declines.

Visible structure inside the graphic

Mozambique’s cotton bar is visibly higher than the other crop bars, while Ethiopia’s coffee and wheat bars are smaller but rise by 2030. The notes below each country separate positive and negative climatological drivers.

Main takeaway from the visual

The chart shows that climate-change effects on African crop yields are uneven. Some crop-country combinations face substantially higher risk, while others show smaller changes or more stable outcomes.

Key standout values or extremes

Mozambique cotton has the highest visible risk, with a 17.5 percent likelihood at the 10 percent yield-decline threshold today. Ethiopia coffee rises from about 3.2 percent today to 4.2 percent by 2030 at the same threshold.

Controls / sequence, when applicable

This is a static bar-chart comparison with map context; there are no in-chart controls to operate.

Companion media, when applicable

There is no separate companion audio or video; the crop-yield risk chart and maps are the full visual on this page.


Ethiopian coffee yields threatened by climate change

Climate change | Africa

July 13, 2020 – By 2030, coffee farmers in Ethiopia and corn producers in Mozambique will have a full percentage point higher chance than they do today of experiencing a 25 percent or greater drop in annual yield. Conversely, cotton yields in Mozambique would become more stable.

 The effects of climate change on African crop yields in 2030 are projected to be uneven.

To read the article, see “How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns of precipitation?,” May 18, 2020.


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