Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
A chemical reaction
Chemicals | Supply Chain Management
February 25, 2026 – For nearly two decades, the chemical sector consistently delivered higher total shareholder returns than the broader market. That trend has reversed, as the sector’s compound annual growth rate for total shareholder return has turned negative, significantly underperforming the MSCI World Index, note Partner Obi Ezekoye and coauthors. To navigate the challenging environment and a sustained supply–demand imbalance, chemical companies may need to rethink their cost structures, optimize their footprints and assets, and accelerate AI adoption to boost performance.
To read the article, see “Chemicals 2025: A new reality for the global chemical industry,” December 19, 2025.
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Visual form
Index Chart: two-line total-shareholder-return comparison with era-by-era CAGR bars.
Layout / body structure
The main panel plots the chemical sector and the MSCI World Index as indexed lines from December 2002 through 2025. Vertical era breaks divide the story into four periods, and small bars below the line chart summarize the compound annual growth rate for each era.
What is being compared
It compares weighted mean total shareholder return for the chemical sector with the broader MSCI World Index across four market eras.
Measurement system
Both lines are indexed to 100 at the starting point, so the chart shows relative TSR growth rather than raw market value. The lower bars report CAGR percentages for each era.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The chemical-sector line runs ahead of the MSCI World line through the first three eras, then loses momentum in the 2022 to 2025 capacity-imbalance period. The lower CAGR bars make the reversal explicit.
Main takeaway from the visual
The chart shows that the chemical sector’s long run of market outperformance has broken down. The sector once compounded ahead of the broader market, but the most recent period shows negative TSR growth for chemicals while the broader index holds up better.
Key standout values or extremes
The chemical sector outpaces the MSCI World Index in the first three eras: 8 percent versus 5 percent, 13 percent versus 12 percent, and 24 percent versus 19 percent. In the fourth era, chemicals fall to -7 percent CAGR while the MSCI World Index is about 9 percent.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static indexed line chart with CAGR summary bars; there are no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chemical-sector TSR index chart is the full visual on this page.