Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Decarbonizing through nature
Asia | Decarbonization
May 28, 2024 – Indonesia is the eighth-largest contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, and historical trends point to a potential doubling of those emissions by 2060. However, senior partner Vishal Agarwal and coauthors show that Indonesia is among the countries with the largest potential for nature-based solutions, with carbon credit potential of over 1.5 gigatons of CO2. The demand for all types of carbon credits in Indonesia is projected to grow tenfold from 2022 to 2030, reflecting a global trend.
Interactive
To read the article, see “Indonesia’s green powerhouse promise: Ten bold moves,” April 22, 2024.
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Visual form
Two-panel Indonesia emissions forecast and nature-based-solutions potential comparison.
Layout / body structure
The first panel shows Indonesia’s greenhouse-gas emissions from 2020 to 2060 by sector. The second panel changes from the domestic emissions trajectory to a country comparison of global nature-based CO2 potential.
What is being compared
It compares Indonesia’s projected emissions growth by sector with its potential role in nature-based carbon removal. The country-level comparison places Indonesia alongside Brazil and other markets by share of global nature-based-solutions potential.
Measurement system
The measures combine emissions growth, sector share, and carbon-removal potential. The page notes 5 percent annual emissions growth over the past 15 years, a possible doubling of emissions by 2060, and nature-based potential of up to 1.5 gigatons of CO2 per year.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The emissions panel breaks the 2020-to-2060 trajectory into sectors and highlights that more than half of 2060 emissions would come from power generation and land use, land-use change, and forestry. The potential panel ranks countries by share of global nature-based-solutions capacity, with Indonesia and Brazil each shown at 15 percent.
Main takeaway from the visual
The chart sets up the tension clearly: Indonesia’s emissions can keep rising sharply, but the country also has one of the world’s largest nature-based decarbonization opportunities. The opportunity is not abstract; it is tied to land use, forestry, carbon credits, and measurable CO2 potential.
Key standout values or extremes
Indonesia is shown as having up to 1.5 gigatons of CO2 per year in nature-based potential. Indonesia and Brazil are the top country shares at 15 percent each, while the article also says demand for Indonesian carbon credits could grow tenfold from 2022 to 2030.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
The reader moves between the emissions-trajectory panel and the nature-based-potential panel to compare the problem scale with the decarbonization opportunity.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.