Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Dynamic industries to watch
Artificial Intelligence
December 12, 2024 – A range of 18 industries, from AI to nuclear fission to biotechnology, could reshape the global economy by 2040, because of their high growth and dynamism, senior partner Chris Bradley and coauthors find. These potential “arenas of tomorrow” could transform how we consume and process data, approach health and wellness, and communicate with each other. These industries may generate $29 trillion to $48 trillion in revenue, with profits ranging from $2 trillion to $6 trillion.
To read the report, see “The next big arenas of competition,” October 23, 2024.
customizer here
Visual form
Bubble-and-table hybrid chart.
Layout / body structure
The visual is laid out as a vertical list of 18 future arenas, with each row showing a 2022 revenue bubble, a much larger 2040 revenue-estimate bubble, a CAGR label, and a profit-range bubble on the far right. Read each row left to right, then scan down the list to compare which arenas are largest and fastest growing.
What is being compared
It compares potential arenas of tomorrow by 2022 revenue, 2040 revenue estimate, growth rate from 2022 to 2040, and 2040 profit estimate with implied margin range. The rows span e-commerce, AI software and services, cloud services, electric vehicles, digital advertisements, semiconductors, shared autonomous vehicles, space, cybersecurity, batteries, modular construction, streaming video, video games, robotics, industrial and consumer biotech, future air mobility, drugs for obesity and related conditions, and nuclear fission power plants.
Measurement system
Revenue and profit are measured in billions of dollars, while growth is measured as CAGR percentages and profit margin ranges are shown in parentheses. Bubble size carries magnitude, and the text labels provide the numeric ranges for each row.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Each row contains a small dark 2022 bubble, a larger dual-tone 2040 revenue bubble in the center, and a green profit bubble on the right. The repeated row structure makes the size differences visible immediately, especially for the very large e-commerce, AI software, cloud, EV, and semiconductor rows near the top.
Main takeaway from the visual
The visual shows that a relatively small set of future arenas could become extraordinarily large by 2040, with e-commerce still dominant but a wide range of technology and industrial categories also scaling sharply. The central revenue-estimate bubbles swell dramatically relative to the 2022 dots across much of the table, showing both large size and long runways for growth.
Key standout values or extremes
The total line at the bottom gives a 2040 revenue range of 29 trillion to 48 trillion dollars and a profit range of 1.9 trillion to 6.1 trillion dollars. E-commerce is shown at about 4.0 trillion dollars in 2022 and 14.0 trillion to 20.0 trillion dollars in 2040, with 280 billion to 1.0 trillion dollars of profit; AI software and services rise from about 85 billion to 1.5 trillion to 4.6 trillion, while electric vehicles reach about 2.5 trillion to 3.2 trillion and semiconductors about 1.7 trillion to 2.4 trillion by 2040.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.