Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
European banks could lose four years of economic progress to the crisis
COVID-19 | Europe | Banking
June 1, 2020 – More than a third of European executives expect a muted recovery that would lead to sharp drops in banks’ revenue, a squeeze on their capital, and a hit on return on equity.
To read the article, see “No going back: New imperatives for European banking,” May 18, 2020.
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Visual form
Line Chart: two-panel European banking time series for revenue and return on equity.
Layout / body structure
The visual places two time-series panels side by side. The left panel tracks European banking revenue before risk and after risk, while the right panel tracks return on equity for UK and EU banks. Shaded crisis windows mark the global financial crisis, the sovereign-debt crisis, and the COVID-19 muted-recovery scenario period.
What is being compared
It compares European bank performance across past crises and a COVID-19 outlook. The revenue panel separates headline revenue from revenue after risk, while the ROE panel compares profitability paths for UK and EU banks.
Measurement system
Revenue is measured in billions of euros, and return on equity is measured as a percent. Small summary boxes translate the scenario into percentage and percentage-point changes.
Visible structure inside the graphic
Revenue before risk stays comparatively steadier, while revenue after risk drops sharply in the COVID-19 scenario window. The ROE panel shows a major decline after earlier crisis dips, making the COVID-19 outlook read as another large setback.
Main takeaway from the visual
The line charts show that a muted recovery would hit risk-adjusted revenue and profitability much harder than headline revenue alone suggests. European banks could lose several years of progress because the crisis affects both losses and returns.
Key standout values or extremes
The page highlights roughly a 40 percent decline in revenue after risk and an 11 percentage-point drop in return on equity next year. The COVID-19 summary box shows revenue after risk falling by about 42 percent.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static pair of line charts; there are no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the two-panel line chart is the full visual on this page.