Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Greener beams
Decarbonization | Infrastructure
May 4, 2022 – The net-zero transition could result in a transformation of the world’s built environment, along with related industrial assets. Take steel. Based on our analysis of the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) Net Zero 2050 scenario, low-emissions steel, which makes up about one-quarter of today’s output, would account for almost all of the world’s steel production by 2050.
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To read the article, see “Infrastructure for a net-zero economy: Transformation ahead,” April 6, 2022.
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Visual form
Stacked step-area chart.
Layout / body structure
The chart is a single time-sequenced production stack running from 2020 on the left to 2050 on the right. Read left to right across the seven time points, following how the three production bands change thickness and how the total level at the top edge evolves over time.
What is being compared
The chart compares three steel-production pathways under the NGFS Net Zero 2050 scenario: high-emissions production, low-emissions electric-arc and hydrogen-based production, and low-emissions BF-BOF with carbon capture and storage. It compares how those pathways divide global steel production over time while also showing the overall total output level.
Measurement system
The vertical scale is global steel production in gigatons. The dark base band represents high-emissions production, the blue middle band represents one low-emissions pathway, and the light-blue top band represents the other low-emissions pathway, with values labeled directly inside the stack at each time point.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The chart is drawn as a stepped stack rather than smooth lines, so each future interval forms a block that clearly shows gains and losses by production type. The dark band steadily shrinks, the middle blue band grows through the 2040s, and the light-blue band expands from almost nothing into a substantial cap by 2050 while the top boundary edges up from 1.8 to 2.0 gigatons.
Main takeaway from the visual
Steel production shifts decisively from high-emissions methods to low-emissions methods over the period, while total output remains roughly stable to slightly higher. By 2050 the high-emissions base is only a small remainder, and nearly the entire stack is made up of the two low-emissions production routes.
Key standout values or extremes
High-emissions steel falls from 1.4 gigatons in 2020 to 0.2 gigatons in 2050. Over the same span, the low-emissions middle band rises from 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons and the light-blue top band rises from effectively 0.0 to 0.6 gigatons, while total production edges up from 1.8 to 2.0 gigatons.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
This is a static chart image with no in-chart controls to operate.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart image is the full visual on this page.