Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
Omicron: A new and uncertain chapter in COVID-19
North America | COVID-19 | Public Health
December 21, 2021 – Three factors will determine the real-world impact of the Omicron variant: the extent to which it can evade the immunity developed by those who have been vaccinated or previously infected by other variants, its inherent infectiousness, and the severity of disease it causes. Click through our scenarios to see how these variables might combine to increase hospitalizations in the United States.
Interactive
To read the article, see “When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?,” December 15, 2021.
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Visual form
Scenario bubble-matrix chart.
Layout / body structure
The chart is a single 4-by-3 scenario grid centered on the page with a bubble-size legend on the right. Reader scans across the immune-evasion columns and up or down the infectiousness rows, then uses the second frame’s boxed base-case cell to anchor where McKinsey places its midpoint scenario.
What is being compared
The chart compares combinations of Omicron infectiousness relative to Delta and Omicron immune evasion relative to Delta. Each grid cell represents one scenario and shows the resulting change in the rate of US COVID-19 hospitalizations over the next six months versus the past six months.
Measurement system
The x-axis uses three immune-evasion states: no difference, 25 percent more evasive, and 50 percent more evasive. The y-axis uses four infectiousness states from 25 percent less infectious up to 50 percent more infectious, and bubble size is the measurement for how small or large the hospitalization-rate increase becomes.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The matrix contains 12 cells with one dark bubble in each cell and a separate size key that shows the scale from small increase to large increase. In the second source frame, the cell at 25 percent more infectious and 25 percent more evasive is outlined and labeled base case, which makes that middle-right cluster the visual reference point for the whole scenario map.
Main takeaway from the visual
Immune evasion is the strongest driver in the chart because bubble size expands most dramatically as the visual moves from the left column to the right column. Higher infectiousness matters too, but the biggest jumps in expected hospitalizations appear once the scenario shifts toward more evasive variants.
Key standout values or extremes
The smallest bubbles sit in the left column where immune evasion shows no difference, even when infectiousness rises. The largest bubbles appear in the 50 percent more evasive column, especially in the upper rows, while the boxed base case sits in the middle row and middle column rather than at either extreme.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
No user-controlled behavior appears in the published version; the page presents the scenario matrix as a fixed image sequence.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.