Source page: McKinsey & Company
Commentary
What share of the US population needs to get vaccinated against COVID-19?
COVID-19 | Public Health
December 1, 2020 – Flip through the charts below to see how the intersection of vaccine effectiveness and the population’s natural immunity can help estimate how many people need to be vaccinated to move us back toward normalcy.
Interactive
To read the article, see “When will the COVID-19 pandemic end?,” November 23, 2020.
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Visual form
Four-panel scenario chart for the US vaccination share needed under vaccine-effectiveness and natural-immunity assumptions.
Layout / body structure
Each panel keeps the same scenario logic: vaccine effectiveness and natural immunity are the assumptions, and the share of the US population that still needs vaccination is the result. Read each panel by checking the assumptions first, then the required vaccination share.
What is being compared
It compares different combinations of vaccine effectiveness and existing natural immunity to estimate how much of the US population would need vaccination to move back toward normalcy.
Measurement system
All key quantities are percentages: vaccine effectiveness, population share with natural immunity, and population share needing vaccination. The point of the chart is the relationship among those percentages, not a count of doses or people.
Visible structure inside the graphic
The frames keep the same threshold logic while the assumptions change. Higher vaccine effectiveness or higher natural immunity lowers the required vaccination share; lower effectiveness or lower immunity pushes the required share upward.
Main takeaway from the visual
There is no single vaccination target that works under every assumption. The required share depends on how well the vaccine works and how much immunity already exists before vaccination.
Key standout values or extremes
The widest contrast is between low-effectiveness, low-immunity conditions and more favorable assumptions. In the unfavorable frames, the implied vaccination requirement climbs sharply; in the favorable frames, the required share falls because each vaccinated person contributes more protection and less population-level immunity is missing.
Controls / sequence, when applicable
The reader steps through four assumption panels to compare how the required vaccination share changes as effectiveness and natural-immunity assumptions move.
Companion media, when applicable
There is no separate companion audio or video; the chart is the full visual on this page.